The Kelly Criterion Betting System
Created by scientist John L. Kelly, the Kelly Criterion Betting System is based around odds mathematics, value betting, and money management – all with an aim to optimise the wager laid down on every bet, while reducing the risk of bankruptcy (if not eliminating it altogether). This system demands that you accurately estimate each bet's probability of success, leading you to use a formula to learn how much of your bankroll you should put down for the game. As you're breaking up your funds using percentages, this system results in an opposite movement to the classic Martingale, which creates the bankruptcy-protection: if you lose, you bet less, and if you win, you bet more. You may find this system helps in such casino games as blackjack and poker – this is a great place to start trying, especially with our free demo game modes.
How do Players use it?
To use this system, you must apply this formula to your play: the percentage of your total wager on a bet = (probability of win * odds) -1 / odds -1. Sound complicated? You're not alone – many gamers may struggle to comprehend using this formula at all, let along successfully. So, let's take a look at it in greater detail.
As an example, let's say Manchester United played Arsenal, with a wager of 1.95. Through your analysis, you've learned that Manchester United has a 55% likelihood of victory. The resulting equation, then, would look like this:
55/100*1.95 -1 / 1.95 -1 = 0.55*1.95 -1 / 0.95 = 0.0725 / 0.95 = 0.0688
So, what do you take from this complicated formula? Well, this shows that the best wager to put on your Manchester United win is 6.88% of your overall funds.
Some players may find this is a real struggle to get to grips with: if you feel too optimistic and place a high percentage down, you'll lose significant cash; if you're too pessimistic, you'll end up with less winnings than you'd like. Basically, the more you use this system, the more you'll grow accustomed to its quirks, and find that comfort-level ideal for yourself. To get the most out of it, you need to be able to make as solid predictions as professional bookmakers (if not better), meaning this is no obvious choice for beginners – only experienced players are likely to take a shine to this. At Casino Midas NZ, every game can be played for free in our fantastic demo mode first – try this system on your favourite titles without laying any real money down. When you've got a feel, deposit funds and try your luck!
